Uncertain. Unclear. Unpredictable. These are just some of the words we have been hearing as we spoke with a couple of Singaporean CEOs at our recent Smart Investor event. Here’s the thing: it’s not just the local leaders scratching their heads. US-listed companies started to report their earnings two weeks ago, and from what we can tell, none of the management teams can confidently say that they have a good handle on the full impact of tariffs. This much is clear: most goods shipped into the US will face at least a 10% tariff. However, it’s the knock-on effects which are hard to tell ahead of time. For instance, if prices rise, US consumers may pull back their spending, leading to lower retail sales. And if consumer demand weakens, business revenues could fall, leading to higher retrenchments. Could this sequence morph into a recession? JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) thinks so, tagging the chances of a recession this year at 60%....