A common attitude toward new launches is that “earlier is better.” We’ve been ingrained in thinking that the sooner we buy, the lower the price, due to developer discounts or early bird pricing. But before you rush to put down a cheque, consider that it’s not always true: there are cases where those who bought later fared better. In this analysis, we’re going to look at the specifics of
how much more you might make from buying earlier, and how consistent the performance is:
Looking at 20,161 transactions
We’re looking at a total of 20,161 buy-sell transactions since January 2011. We ignored periods earlier due to the introduction of the Sellers Stamp Duty which curbed speculative transactions.
We’ve ranked these transactions with bands ranging from 0 to 100 per cent. Being in the 0 to 10 per cent band means the transactions were among the first 10 per cent of buyers, whilst being in the 90 to 100 per cent band means they were among the last 10 per cent of buyers.
These are the overall results:
| Buying Stage (0% = Early, 100% = Late) |
Gain (ROI %) |
No. of Gains |
Breakeven |
No. of Loss |
Loss (ROI %) |
Total Volume |
| 0% – 10% |
29.2% |
1465 |
0 |
41 |
2.70% |
1506 |
| 10% – 20% |
29.9% |
1717 |
0 |
77 |
4.30% |
1794 |
| 20% – 30% |
30.8% |
1839 |
0 |
62 |
3.30% |
1901 |
| 30% – 40% |
28.8% |
1879 |
1 |
88 |
4.50% |
1968 |
| 40% – 50% |
29.9% |
2129 |
3 |
94 |
4.20% |
2226 |
| 50% – 60% |
29.1% |
1848 |
0 |
62 |
3.20% |
1910 |
| 60% – 70% |
27.9% |
1894 |
2 |
99 |
5.00% |
1995 |
| 70% – 80% |
28.4% |
1991 |
1 |
118 |
5.60% |
2110 |
| 80% – 90% |
27.5% |
1893 |
1 |
116 |
5.80% |
2010 |
| 90% – 100% |
26.7% |
2539 |
3 |
199 |
7.30% |
2741 |
...
