I have sold my HRnet and Fiverr shares at a loss after holding for more than four years. Both companies have been hurt by the secular 4-year decline in the recruitment market. A jobs recovery could be imminent but I have decided to redeploy the proceeds into MSC Industrial which should benefit from the US re-shoring trend.
I learnt a few painful lessons from this experience. First, start with a small position for stock exposed to cyclical demand and average in slowly. The long four year decline in the recruitment market caught me by surprise. Second, don’t overpay! I paid more than 30x sales for my Fiverr position and suffered larger losses compared to my HRnet investment. Lastly, beware of thesis drift. I started investing in Fiverr when revenue was growing 60-70% y/y and active buyers and spend per buyer was growing nicely. However, I continued holding even as growth decelerated from 80% to single digits....