Global markets are rattled by the unfolding conflict over Iran. But their reaction signals concern, not catastrophe. Here’s why – and how to navigate the volatility.
What Happened
The US and Israel attacked Iran over the weekend after negotiations broke down over the country’s nuclear programme, eliminating Iran’s leader and calling for regime change in Tehran. This signals a longer and broader campaign than previously thought. Iran has already retaliated against neighbouring Gulf states, beyond hitting US military bases in those countries.
Why This Matters for Markets
Markets opened on Monday with a risk-off move. Oil prices initially spiked over 10%, but they soon moderated to single-digit gains. Safe haven assets firmed — gold, the US dollar, and US Treasuries all had decent support in the Asian trading session. Equities slid, but only by around 1-2% in most cases. Developed Asia remains strong year-to-date, with outstanding gains in Japan and Korea, while Hong Kong is off marginally. This tells us that...