The headlines today are dominated by the conflict between the United States and Iran, with the critical Strait of Hormuz at risk of closure. At first glance, this may seem like a distant geopolitical issue. It is not. What is at stake goes far beyond oil supply. If the U.S. fails to achieve a decisive outcome, it could trigger a structural shift in the global financial system—with consequences reaching even Singapore. US Loss- Decline of Petrodollar and the USD share in global reserves Today, most global oil trade is denominated in U.S. dollars—the foundation of the “petrodollar” system.

• Gulf states rely heavily on USD for trade
• Transactions are largely routed through the SWIFT system

However, a perceived U.S. weakening could change incentives. Countries may:

• Shift oil contracts into the Chinese yuan (RMB)
• Adopt China’s alternative payment system, Cross-Border Interbank Payment System

(Ironically CIPS is faster and cheaper than the West's SWIFT system, just that countries...