• Recessions are a normal phenomenon in the life of an investment . Over a 30-year horizon, most investors will likely live through at least one.
• Markets are forward-looking — they typically reprice before a recession is officially declared and begin recovering while macroeconomic data still looks weak, which is what makes deferring re-entry until “conditions improve” such a costly strategy.
• A well-constructed portfolio’s objective is not to avoid drawdowns entirely. It is to limit losses during severe dislocations and remain invested through the recovery that has historically followed.

Every few years, the same cycle repeats: growth is decelerating, recession risk is rising, equity markets are selling off, and the pressure to act—to reduce risk, raise cash, do something—becomes difficult to ignore. In most cases, acting on that pressure is a mistake. Over a 30-year investment horizon, most investors will live through several recessions. Each feels singular in the moment—the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC), the 2020 COVID-19 shock...