Something deeply weird is happening in markets right now, and I think most retail investors are misreading it.
Let me lay out the situation plainly.
Following a hotter-than-expected inflation report in mid-May, market pricing took virtually any chance of a Fed rate cut off the table between now and end-2027. More strikingly, traders in the fed funds futures market are now pricing in an interest rate increase as soon as December, with a March 2027 hike carrying better than 71% probability.
So rates going up. Got it.
Now here's the punchline: over the past month, the Nasdaq surged nearly 15%, the S&P gained almost 10%, and the Dow added over 6%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq is up nearly 40%.
Stocks. Going. Up.
How does a market that's pricing in rate hikes simultaneously make new all-time highs? This feels like it shouldn't be allowed.
And yet, here we are.
What's actually happening
Fed rate expectations have reversed from pricing 2–3 cuts three months ago to now expecting hikes...