The original version of this article first appeared in The Business Times. Michael Burry, the contrarian investor Christian Bale played in The Big Short, earned his reputation by seeing what almost no one else could: that the “safe” label stamped on mortgage-backed securities in 2007 bore no relation to the rotting loans beneath them. He was right, spectacularly so, and the call became the stuff of financial legend and a movie. He has also, in the years since, wrongly predicted at least two recessions that never arrived. Which raises an uncomfortable question. Was the first call genius, or was it just lucky timing? And the harder one behind it: we see so many predictions from where the market will be headed to the loud bubble warnings but how many times have they actually been right—and how often have they simply been early, loud, and wrong? This is not an attempt...