Gold has rebounded strongly from around US$4,000 to above US$4,300 — and UBS has now made a fresh call that gold could reach
US$5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2027.
In this video, I’ll break down why UBS is bullish, why gold has been rebounding so sharply, and whether this rally has enough fundamental support to continue.
We’ll look at the key drivers behind the move:
- Falling inflation pressure
- The impact of oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz
- Changing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates
- The US dollar and Treasury yields
- Weakening labour-market data
- Central-bank and Asian investor demand
- The latest analyst forecasts from JPMorgan, HSBC, Goldman Sachs and UBS
- The technical levels around US$4,380, US$4,500 and beyond
UBS expects inflation to moderate, allowing the Fed to keep rates on hold in 2026 before resuming monetary easing in 2027. UBS has also suggested that weakness around US$4,000 or below could ultimately represent an opportunity to build strategic gold exposure.
At the same time, gold has already rallied more than 6% this week in some measures, showing that market sentiment has shifted quickly.
But is US$5,000 really achievable?
I’ll map out the
bear, base and bull scenarios and assess how realistic the latest Wall Street forecasts really are.
This content is for education and discussion only and is not financial advice. Gold prices can be volatile, and analyst forecasts can change quickly.
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