SIA Engineering (SIAEC), together with its parentco, has been badly hit by the pandemic. Its share price collapsed from S$3-4 levels to S$2-2.5 today. Years ago, I wrote an analysis with a bear case scenario that determined that the intrinsic value should be S$3.5 given that it will still earn S$200m of free cashflow (FCF) annually in a "downturn". My bull case has an intrinsic value of S$5 supported by annual free cashflow of S$250-350m!
SIA Engineer's five year share price
Well, the pandemic threw everything out of the window. SIAEC went into losses last year although it did continue to generate FCF, amazingly. This was S$150m in FY2020 (not to far off from my S$200m!) and S$80m for the1H of 2021. So if we can get pandemic out of the way in 2022, then this can really be an interesting pandemic recovery play! But this is not post to gloat about the...