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October 2010 was another relatively quiet month in terms of corporate announcements and business news. Despite the constant trickle of economic news and data coming out of the USA and China, there was not much of an impact in terms of stock market movements and sentiment. It could be that people are either more de-sensitized to such news, or the full brunt of the news has yet to sink in. Whatever the case, companies which are well-managed should still be able to grow, albeit at slower rates dependent on economic growth. As for the issue of inflation, the current low interest-rate environment will probably cause this to be a problem 1-2 years down the road; and I am hoping this problem is tackled sooner rather than later.
The “biggest” and most sensational international news appears to be China’s unexpected increase in interest rates during late October 2010. China raised the 1-year lending rate and deposit rates by 25 basis points (0.25%), partly to slow down China’s (continual) red-hot growth and also to tame inflation. Let’s not forget that China’s property prices have also been on an uptrend, with prices moving out of reach of most commoners’ (as a proportion of their annual salaries). I personally feel that China could be where the next “bust” will occur, as it is never mentioned that this is a possibility and everyone is somehow looking towards the USA and Europe to drag down the rest of the world. There was even some news to suggest that all the inflows of “hot money” exiting USA and Europe could find its way into China, Hong Kong and Singapore, thereby creating an asset bubble in both property and equity markets. Whether this is so will only be much clearer, on hindsight! Read more...