Disclosure: Writer is invested in both Starhub and Singtel.
I wrote in the past about the fundamentals of investing in Singapore Telecoms and what is the future are in store (
Singtel,M1 and Starhub analysis here). I also wrote about the coming changes in the industry, how it is going to be bad for developed market telcos (
article here).
Many of my friends do not agree with me. It is still perceived that
- People still need voice calls therefore the telcos will not die
- Telcos are inevitably backed by Temasek therefore they will not die
- More smartphone will definitely increase revenue
These are very dangerous assumptions and we are starting to see my scenarios played out.
As a recap, technologically
- ARPU for voice will fall. People will change communication means. With telcos competing, consumers are not likely to still pay your standard 25 bucks or 50 ...
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