In my opinion, there are two key concepts that investors must master: Value and Cycles. For each asset you're considering, you must have a strongly held view of its intrinsic value. When its price is below that value, it's generally a buy. When it's price is higher, it's a sell. In a nutshell, that's value investing. But values aren't fixed; they move in response to changes in the economy. Thus, cyclical considerations influence an asset's current value. Value depends on earnings, for example, and earnings are shaped by the economic cycle and the price being charged for liquidity. - Howard Mark of OakTree Capital ......