Noble Group crash of more than 30% in a week is the trigger for me to look commodity again. I have initially wanted to take a punt on Noble Group as I thought even with the write down on its Yancoal assets, it is trading at too heavy a discount to NAV. But the search lead me to somewhere else.
Some pictures first.
With the exception of First Resources (The third is Olam, Name got cut off), all counters have experienced a drop of at least 50% from its peak.
Golden agri and First resources were on my radar, both show a deterioration of earnings due to the weak CPO price, but First resources was incredibly resilient. It was better plantation profile and the "growth" in production might be the reason why the company holds up well. The growth in production would have somewhat offset the weakness in price.
I ......