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The Overfitting Fallacy
By cheerful.egg  •  August 16, 2017
When I was in college, I was an obnoxious smartass. Like every ambitious, testosterone-driven Singaporean male, I believed I could trade my way towards becoming a millionaire. So I bought some trading software, some market data, several hundred dollars worth of trading books, and begin to craft my own strategy. Back then, “rules-based” technical trading was all the rage. I coded these rules into my software, making my trading model complex, layered, and sophisticated. In my backtest results, the model performed wonderfully. It was projecting a 5% returns per month, which would make me a millionaire in less than a decade. Armed with statistically-significant data, I started trading with “seed funding” from my parents… … And it was a total disaster. I lost over $10,000 in a few months – an exorbitant amount of money for a poor college kid. What went wrong?

I Committed The Overfitting Fallacy

The ......
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By cheerful.egg
Hey, what’s up? My name’s Lionel. When I was a kid, my favourite comic of all time was Spider-Man. Before he became a superhero, Peter Parker had to deal the day-to-day struggles of a young person: Living with foster parents, grades, bullies, and getting pushed around.
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