Singapore's GDP had a nasty Q2. quarter to quarter it shrank 3.4% surprising many economists. The effect of this result prompted a survey on my ERM alumni who, generally speaking, have a lot more skin in the investment game than the general public. You can see the choices in the poll above, but as it stands, my students believe that a deep L shaped recession is a slightly higher probability than a shallow V shaped recession.

Actually, I do not share the same sentiment as my students.

My take is closer to DPM Heng - the next recession will occur but it would be a very short-lived V shaped recovery and a good time to accumulate more equities.

However, to have a concentrated population of aggressive investors vote on an L-shaped recovery can be disturbing. One of the consequences of believing in this prediction is a flight to bonds to avoid the

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