A lot of you may have seen the news about homebuyers protesting at Evergrande offices in China this week. Evergrande’s debt issues have been well known for a long time, but things really started accelerating the past week – and a default looks virtually certain now. But beneath the surface, this is a massive event for China credit, with a real risk of contagion. I’ve seen a lot of hot takes out there on (1) this is China’s Lehman, or (2) Don’t worry the CCP will bail them out, that are getting it wrong. The reality, is far more nuanced. I’ll do my best to break down what is happening, and share my views on what’s coming next. What is Evergrande (恒大)? Now Evergrande isn’t some small SME, it’s China’s second-largest property firm by sales. They own more than 1300 projects across 280 cities in China....