10-year SGS bond yields have been falling since U.S. Oct CPI was reported on 10th Nov 2022, as expectations of the Fed slowing interest rate hikes has increased. 10Y SGS yield has fallen off its highs to around 3.13% as of time of writing. The last T-bill auction on 10th Nov 2022 also had lower cut-off yield at 4%. Source: Trading Economics According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 bps rate hike at the next Fed meeting in Dec 2022 is at 76%. Source: CME FedWatch tool Since SSB for Jan 2023 will be based on the average daily 10Y SGS yield for Nov 2022, we can start to make a calculated guess about what next month’s SSB yield might be. With around 1.5 weeks left for Nov, the average is now hovering around 3.4%. But if assuming yields average around 3.13% for the rest of the month, SSB yield will end up around 3.3%....