Personal Finance
Sometimes it’s better to be “stupid” and “wrong”
By Singapore Man of Leisure  •  June 14, 2011
I would like to share a “true” story that my grandmother used to tell me when she was alive. My grandma had a widowed “jie-mei” (sister) friend who stayed at Punggol in the 1960s. This friend stayed in an attap (wooden) house like many Singaporeans who stayed outside the city then. (Singapore got city meh? Hey! My story or your story?) This jie-mei auntie worked hard and managed to save SGD 2,000 in her late 40s. She was worried that putting this “fortune” under her pillow is not safe in her rickety attap house. Being illiterate and not financially savvy, plus her strong distrust of banks, she decided that the safest way was to “invest” this SGD 2,000 by buying a plot of “swampy” land just outside her attap house in Pungol. Her reasoning is simple – thieves can come and rob her, and fires may burn down her attap house, but that piece of “land” will never be lost! Of course once the news of her buying that piece of “swampy” land spread to her neighbours, relatives, and friends – everyone was quick to offer their “well-intentioned” advice: “That land can’t even grow vegetables, do you know?” “Ah yeah! Better put the money in bank, can earn interest!” “Why you so stupid? That land nobody want; you so silly to buy it!” “Cannot build attap house on swampy land… If not you can at least earn some rental income. I feel sorry for you…” And on and on… Everyone seems to be an “expert”. Somehow they did not notice that this jie-mei aunty never asked for their advice. All she did was to listen patiently and nod her head and laugh: “Really? Oh! I so stupid! Silly me!” 10 years passed. Lo and behold! Singapore in the 1970s was undergoing rapid redevelopment. And this development reached all the way to “ulu” (backward) Punggol too. A developer bought the land surrounding her attap house and village, and her “swampy and useless” plot of land was the last one in the way. Guess how much the developed paid this jie-mei auntie for her swampy land? SGD 100,000!!! Remember this amount is not a small amount in the 70s! I think enough to buy landed bungalow! You do the math. A 50 bagger return over 10 years. Compound interest is equivalent to around 48% per annum (even better than Warren Buffet in % terms!) And in money terms it’s the equivalent of getting a SGD 10,000 per year income for 10 years with an initial investment of SGD 2,000. Now how many of the gurus out there giving seminars and selling books have this kind of dividend/bond/rental yield? No leverage needed some more. This jie-mei auntie gave her 3 sons most of this windfall money to start their own small businesses. And in her retirement, she was happily visiting Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Thailand. Not so bad for an illiterate not so savvy widow right? That’s why my grandmother told me this story. In her voice, I can sense her envy and wonderment of the “luck” of her jie-mei friend. This personal story of my youth was inspired by a chat on LP’s chat box last Friday afternoon. There’s a gentleman let’s call him “nevetS”. He mused that in 4 years time, he hopes he can sell his HDB (public housing) flat for SGD 450,000 – at the same current market price today. This remark attracted lots of “well-intentioned” advice (and mockery in disguise. Not so cool leh). And many were skeptical whether he can sell at the current price 4 years later. All of sudden, everyone is a bear on the Singapore property market? All this new found insight just because our Housing Minister is trying to talk down the red-hot property market? In Sept 2009, when I started to tip-toe back in the equities market, I was mentally prepared to let my money be tied in the equities market for the next 3-4 years. I thought this great recession will last that long! Little did I expect the STI (Straits Times Index) will double 1.5 years later? Not that I am complaining! Now how many forecasted this quick turnaround of the STI during 2009? (For those who did, thumbs up to you!) OK, now switch back to the property market. Can it not happen that in 2012-13 we have a correction, and in 2014-15 the property market recovers and property prices end up higher than in 2011? Why so sure nevetS is “wrong” and you are “right”? You got attend fortune telling for financial freedom seminar? I am boldly predicting that forture tellers will soon join into the seminars fray if the market demand remains strong! Once upon a time Options and Multi-level marketing seminars were everywhere. Then they were replaced by Forex and Real Estate seminars. If history is anything to go by, we will soon find old wine in new bottles! Hey! Just got another one – invest in fine wine for financial freedom! nevetS, you bought your HDB during BTO (Build-to-order) at SGD 200,000, while those that come after who bought during WIS (Walk-in-selection) paid SGD 300,000. In the words of my Counter-Strike days: “Song bo (Happy)?” I already know what nevetS will say :)  nevetS, whatever happens 4 years later is icing on the cake. nevetS, you go man! About the Author: "Hi! I'm a Singaporean working in Athens, Greece. I aspire to be like the swan that's here and gone. And if need be, I'll rather be the hammer than the nail. Yes, it's from that song. 123, Away, I rather sail away.... (El Condor Pasa)" Singapore Man of Leisure (welcome to my blog; just google it!) This post was written by a guest contributor. Please see their details in the post above. If you'd like to guest post for TheFinance.sg, feel free to contact me for details about how YOU can share your tips and knowledge with our community.
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2 responses to “Sometimes it’s better to be “stupid” and “wrong””

  1. Derek Lim says:

    Hi SMOL,

    Although we are not comparing apple to apple here – a HDB house now and a plot of land in the 1960s, there is an important lesson to be learnt. Many people tend to follow the majority, I think we call it the ‘herd’ mentality. They do it (including myself) sometimes knowingly or unknowingly. When I was growing up, my parents told me academic results were everything. When I started my job, pay is everything. Sometimes we can’t help it due to the society we are in but there are also many situations which we can choose not to follow the norm. However, most of the time, we are just too comfortable in following the masses that we forget what we can choose not to and going against the norm makes you an outcast.

    After dabbling in the market for a few years, I have decided on a simple investment approach by Warren Buffet “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Easier said than done but I hope that when the time comes, I will be ready.

    Cheers!

  2. Jared Seah says:

    Hello Derek,

    You are right! But it’s not as easy as it seems… Temasek tried to do it but caught the falling knife instead…. But Warren Buffet really good. The way he structured his rescue of Goldman Sachs is superb! 10% yield convertible preference shares. Brilliant! Got income while waiting for the recovery, and capital gains when Goldman shares recovered.

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