Drizzt: long term market analysis is a series once or twice a month where we take a look at longer term trends in the market to get our bearings right on the general direction of where market prices is going.

We are at the tail end of 2011 and we ended up flat on the S&P500 largely. We are down 17% on the STI index though.

In my last analysis (see here), I stated that S&P500 could go up or down from here, the STI and emerging markets look worse and could be decouple from the US markets.

Monthly S&P500

At Investment Moats, one of the bull and bear indicators that we use to help us determine a longer term trend is the 10 Month EMA. A cross below the 10 month EMA signifies an overweight position in equities and a cross below signifies an underweight and risk ...