Dear readers,

Last Fri, S&P500 logged its largest one day fall since 3 Jan 2019, due in part to the weak European PMI and the yield curve inversion between U.S. 3-month bill and 10-year note yields.

At the time of writing this, Dow closed 0.55% higher on Tues as U.S. 10 year bond yields stabilise. Is last Fri’s fall the precursor to something more serious? Or it is a false alarm?

First things first, what are the reasons for the sharp rally since late Dec?

S&P500 has rallied approximately 20.1%, or 471 points from the intra-day low of 2,347 on 26 Dec 2018 to close 2,818 on 26 Mar 2019. This sharp rally may be attributed to some of the following factors

a) Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on 4 Jan 2019 that he would be flexible / patient on interest rate. i.e. dovish;

b) Most U.S. corporate results