Author: Sillyinvestor

Correction to "Random thoughts: The singapore property cycles." Post

I made a error in my calculation, and I think I need to point it out. Thank you to Chan Yuan, who leave comments that alert me to the error and generate more discussions. My apologies. Will be more careful with numbers. I mentioned a growth rate of 2% on non resident population with means 320k more residents every year. The correct figure should be 32k I also state there is a supply of about 30k units without buyers in the pipeline, that will come on the market over the next few years. There is also a link provided...

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Random thoughts: The singapore property cycles.

I was thinking about property cycles. I think to myself, there are plenty of unsold units from various listed developers, mostly the luxury segment. Given that in another 1-2 years, most will be hit with penalty for holding them vacant, they either can pay the penalty or reduce price to move them. When they slash price to move them in the environment of increasing interest rate as well as supply, wouldn’t it create a domino effect? Maybe it would be a good time for some property shopping for this new property cycle in a year or two. I decided...

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2 rounds of money saving exercises

My 2 rounds of money saving exercises are 1 year apart. The savings are not actually significant, but nonetheless better than nothing. First round: Review the monthly bills. My iPhone plan used to be the second tier plan, which costs about close to 50 dollars, and I have a mobile broadband plan that cost $20. I change my phone plan to a lower plan and convert it to Coporate plan. I cancelled my mobile plan, since it’s mainly for my iPad use. Usually, my son used it to watch utube. Savings: $40 a month Pitfall: when renewing/ upgrading your...

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Random thoughts: What is your weapon system in Investment

Just for fun, here goes: Most of us who started off investing in university, use a Parang or maybe a revolver to kill. But we always thought we can use a Parang or revolver to slay bears, tigers and dragons. Slowly, we realized, we need more than revolver and rounds and rounds of ammunition. We need something more sophisticated. Be it a trader or value investor, or whatever name you fancy, the details are different, but I think you know the following nonetheless. A Radar system: To identify stocks to make money. TA for traders, FA for investors or...

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Comparison of Industrial Reits Part 2

I will be comparing Mapletree and Ascendas Reit in this post. Both are bigger reits with government-linked heritage.   Capital management Both have prudent refinancing schedule stretch over more than 6 years. With the exception of FY19/20 (27%) for Mapletree, both have less than 20% of bank borrowing scheduled for refinancing for any one year.Portfolio management Both reits managed positive rental renewal across all property segments. Average rental reversion is 6.3% compared to a year ago for ascendas, but data not available for Mapletree. As for new leases, light industrial new leases rate is 21% lower than 1 year...

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Comparison of industrial Reits Part 1

I will be comparing Sabana and Cambridge Reit in this post. Both are smaller reits with weaker sponsors. Sabana and Cambridge has similar Master Lease to Multi-tenant mix. Sabana is 59% to 41% Cambridge is 56.5% to 43.5% Theoretically, Sabana with its higher Master Tenant Lease, should have a lower operating expenses. But given the difference in insignificant, lets not be too harsh. Cambridge’s NPI to revenue is 78% Sabana’s NPI to revenue is 72% Cambridge managed “renewed approx 300,000 sq ft of leases in 3Q2014, amounting to 1.6 million sq ft of leases YTD2014 with positive rental reversion”,...

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Random thoughts: Pain, the indispensable ingredient for success

Pain, get ready for it. The faster you accept it, the better you mind is attuned to face it. What I show my students 1 week ago, before I start my intensive revision. In order not to feel guilty, I decided to do something too. I like to take little snacks to treat myself as comfort items. I sometimes go out of my workplace to have lunch, have a good breakfast, buy some snacks to eat before I start the afternoon session of work. Now, for the past week, every time I feel like buying the “Gong Cha” for...

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Random thoughts: striking a balance between engagement and effectiveness

Between the two, which is a must have? Which is a good to have? My answer is, there is no good balance. You sought both, you get nothing. One has to make some way for the other. However, if you are very highly effective, there will be rub-off engagement, vice versa is true. In my previous school, engagement is the key to effectiveness, now, effectiveness is the key to engagement.  A fellow colleague from another workplace, told me his boss value , engagement a lot, care a lot of his staff welfare. Nope, it is not lip service, all...

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Always fully vested vs Market Timing (War Chest) approach

I did a simple test, using these 2 approaches to STI index investing and want to see which one will fare better when back dated 20 years. At such, the investor would have go through AFC, Sars + Gulf war and the GFC. To do this test, I make a lot of assumptions, for academic purposes, investors from either 1 approach could well do better or worse if some of the assumptions do not hold true. Assume: 1) Investor A and B both start with $5000 and have $1000 fresh funds to invest every year. Investor A:Investor A stay...

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My thoughts on S-chips

There is plenty of negative sentiments surrounding s-chips and I would say it is not without justifiable reasons. There are plenty of fraud cases, and I have my fair share of hits and losses. The thing is, for me, those that I was vested before, at least we’re still around, and some did well. What I am sharing is just my personal opinion. Different types of S-chips: S-chips are defined by companies with all of its business or most of it business in China. There is a tighter definition, S -chip are companies with most of its business in...

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Besides numbers, what to look for in an ARs

There is no end to numbers and ratio when I dig a company ARs. Maybe I share some of my thoughts when reading annual reports qualitatively. 1) management assessment of industry: You can also read about the management outlook. You can read if it’s pessimism or optimism is valid. The safe approach is always to be conservative and surprise on the upside. But I have read reports where managements stick their head out and say their see growth pockets or headwinds. It is ok to be wrong ocassionally, we Are no oracles, but if they are right most of...

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Blood spilling?

No blood on the street, but obviously there are some “injured”counters that were not too far off my “willing price” recently. For fun sake, and also to keep my itchy fingers off, I decided to share what are some of the companies that are cheap if they fall further. I will haphazard a ┬ácheap price to convince myself to do nothing now. So tempted to trade. Bad Sillyinvestor Disclaimer: I am just sharing freely, I may or may not buy when prices are met or even below my willing price. I am not afraid to let other know what...

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Sembcorp industries Part 1

Trying to consolidate my thoughts here. Sembcorp is a cash generating net cash company, with positive FCF 11 out of the 15 years record that I tracked. I am particularly interested in the utilities segment, as I see it as both a cash cow and a growth sector. Since its inception in 2001, it has almost an unbroken track record of growing EBIT (I used this for consistency with earlier 2001-2002 data). While I still cannot not ascertain how much of the revenue is recurring, but I know recurring income form a portion of it, otherwise, it is unlikely...

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Random thoughts: Bo Tar Chey, the in theme now?

I subtly noticed after our PM mentioned about success even without a degree, many have started sharing the Bo Tar Chey BTC ( never study) success stories. In fact, some of the otherwise mild people now openly declare their success as compare to their BTC status. My thoughts on this matter: 1) I agree that u dun need a degree to be successful. 2) However, no need degree does not mean BTC. People who BTC are usually forced by circumstances and not by choice. It could be their family circumstances then were not favorable for education to be pursued....

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Random thoughts: The Mind, Method and Money in the recent correction

Actually I would hardly call this a correction, something around 5-10 % perhaps would mean a correction. Maybe we will get it come next week. Nonetheless, I think the “mind” part of me is better now. I am reading up companies which I think are successful, sembcorp industries, Keppel, Sembmarine, OsIm… Just for fun as I expand my radar. The Money part is already fully vested, so no motivation to do detailed analysis. If the M is there, starhill global and low Keng Huat will be what I will accumulate. Too bad I don’t have strong vitamin M. No...

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