Author: Sillyinvestor

Random thoughts: After thoughts after moving to blogger

Most readers would know I used to blogged at wordpress I came over so that I could apply for Adsense, although I need to wait 6 months, I decided against going for other options as I believe “good things are worth waiting for” I also thought of increasing viewership/ readership for the 6 months would be a good idea. I thought if I do regular company prospecting, my radar expands, my posts frequency increase, my readership increase, and Volia, It is a Win- Win situation. I am aware the advertisement fees if any, in the end, would most probably...

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Reflection on my investment journey on Industrial Reit

I would like to summarize my thoughts on my investment journey with Industrial reit, using Sabana and Ascendas as examples. Here are my main points. 1) The pitfalls of 100% occupancy with Master Leases It is 100% occupied because 1 master Tenant took charge of the whole place, it could be 100% occupied, 50% occupied.  Why does it matter? Because 2 things affect renewal, rental rates and occupancy rates. When I studied the 4 of Sabana Master leases that are expiring in 2013, a couple of the leases have no rental escalation clause, and during the few years, industrial...

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Random thoughts: reflections on buy sell decisions

SMOL ask me if I have a plan. I think he is trying to tell me to find my own style and footing in investing. The weird thing is: I realised many of the little voices guiding my decisions are in one way of another shared by someone. Nicknames are mentioned as a mark of respect and acknowledgement of originality of idea. If any of the readers are the people mentioned, just chill if I interpret it differently. In the end, it is my interpretation of what was said I look at ST and Acendas, and ask myself, If...

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A busy September -Silly’s Changes to portfolio

The following changes took place in September. 1) Switch out of Parkson Retail Asia for Ascendas Reit 2) Include ST engineering to the portfolio. I still believed in Parkson Retail Asia longer term retail story, but I initiate position on Ascendas Reit at $2.24. Given I have also bought ST engineering, I do not want to over-stretched my cash holdings, so I decided to switch out of Parkson, for a higher yield Ascendas and for a nice 15% profit for holding it for less than 2 months. Hmm… Why would a value investor do such short term flipping? I...

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Random stories: The number world prelude

It is the year 2146. The world economy is in very bad state. The biggest economies have already formed economic groupings. The era of union of biggest economies has brought only revival that lasts less than a decade. Hunger and survival brought down some of the nationalistic barriers. Both fiscal and monetary tools were used, and the unimaginable political unions that went beyond treaties and allies actually happened. When Taiwan return to China arms and a East Asia Economy bloc consisting of Japan, a unified Korea and China and Taiwan is formed, it was a poster boy to the...

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Parkson Retail Asia – Odel, to sell or not to sell?

A Sri Lankan Conglomerate has luanched a takeover for Odel, which Parkson Retail Asia has a 47% stake. http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=307766&Itemid=79 Parkson retail bought the stake at Rs 1.4 billion http://www.dailymirror.lk/mirror-stock-watch-live/20643-parkson-retail-to-buy-42-of-odel-for-rs14-billion-.html So if Parkson is to sell the all the stake, it will make Rs 2.8 billion A 100% gain for 2 years. Looking at Odel AR, it has super high advertisement and marketing costs, and the latest quarter is loss-making, it has heavy debt liabilities too. (AR source: http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/960_1406712191419.pdf) (http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/960_1406712191419.pdf) Wonder if Parkson Retail Asia will sell? I hope they...

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Random stories: The number world

Year 2194 F6, mankind lived in a very different world. It is the 6th Five-year Era. Man and machine has blurred. Everyone has a wearable glasses that is embedded with a micro-processor and is a face- features reader. With a look, everyone is identified. Unless done by sophisticated surgeons, one need not bother to disguise oneself, the technology can pick up the nuances. Anyway, it is already the sixth cycle, anyone who disguised themselves successfully and let themselves appear as “errors”, or “No available data” fared far worse than the “Decimals” “Decimals” are the lowest social class. They have...

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Growth – Not all are equal

We know we all look to a company to grow its top line and bottom line to create shareholder value. Growth is a very subjective yet important factor when analyzing a company. Growth can make a fairly priced company cheap and the lack of, can make a cheap company even cheaper. Based on my primitive observation, I felt not all growth are equal, and in my feeble attempt, try to rank what kind of growth seem to be of higher value then others. First tier Growth – High probability, low stress on balance sheet and certainty of  flow to...

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A quick look at LMIR’s new deal. Is it a good deal?

Some numbers first. Total dilution assuming 40.5 cents for consideration shares and after placement of new shares (EFR shares) = 16.7% Improvement in NPI using 2013 numbers: 33.6 mio / 143.3 mio =  23.4% Improvement in Distributable Income using 2013 numbers: 19 mio / 73 mio =  26% Occupancy rate = 92.8% Note: It is high enough number with room for improvement. It is newly opened in 2012 and if you compare this with Pluit Village record, it is being filled up quite quickly. It is part of a integrated development by lippo, with hotels, Spa and hospitals. I...

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Paullow’s different financial journey

I first got to know Paullow at valuebuddies, when he wrote deep analysis on Hupsteel. He commented on my post about my delusional financial journey and is very encouraging. We interacted and his views are rather thought provoking. I am not going to summarized our conversation, you can read the comments yourself. I think he gave me a few insights which I will share here. Insight 1: Simple concept works He told me not to spend too much time crunching numbers, but spot perpetual dividend payers. He mentioned Colgate, and when I ask about Hupsteel, he told me that...

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Random Thoughts: The effective way of learning

Went for a course, was shown a learning triangle which show the average student’s retention rate. Before we were shown the pyramid, we were asked to guess the order by sequencing the different learning methods ourselves. I got the first and last correct. Least effective in terms of retention rate is Lecture and most effective is teaching others. I thought Reading should do better. I know I learn about investment theories through reading, When I think about my learning of investment, a lot of it doesn’t make sense until I think further. Read the questions first, and see if...

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ST engineering Part 2 – The more I read, the more confused I get

I have wanted to write about the electronics sector. I ended up reading all 4 sectors, I even read the earliest AR available, AR 2000. Looking ST engineering, my thoughts go through a state of flux. (Blogging about it, I hope helps) 1) Why not do some financial engineering, and spin off 1 or 2 sectors? Now, I realized the amalgamation of the 4 sectors since 1997 is a strategy to gain Snergy and Mass to expand and gain foothold into new market. For example, the aerospace sector bought training school, electronics sector develop the software.They are successful in...

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Random thoughts: A delusional financial journey

There is not an inspiration post, rather it is more of an negative example. My journey thus far, the highs or lack of, and the lows. When I was doing my National service, I seldom go out with my platoon mates during nights off. I simply enjoyed a meal at Changi Village, and took a slow walk back to camp, usually alone. I managed to save almost 10k after the 2 years. I signed a contract with my employer when I am still studying at university. I was given allowance when I study. I managed to save more than...

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My thoughts on ST Engineering Part 1

I did some more preliminary reading on ST engineering. Here are some of my thoughts: First criteria of cash generating business is fulfilled. WIth the exception of 1 year, every year it generated FCF. Next, it is sustainable. The payout in terms of earnings is usually 0.9 to 1, but for 2013, it is 0.8 What attracted me is the FCF to payout ratio for the last 2 years are low, at 0.65 and 0.72. It seems to me that from 2009 onwards, ST has been able to sustain its growth and dividend payout through its FCF. As for...

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Random thoughts: Coming over to blogspot

Here I am, I am still sillyinvestor. I will stop wordpress from next week onwards. Anyone else wondering how I import blog posts and comments from wordpress to blogspot can see this link http://google.about.com/od/googleblogger/a/How-To-Move-Your-Blog-From-Wordpress-To-Blogger.htm Reason? Money! Money! Money! Even I get few cents a year I also happy....

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