Random thoughts- why are the young competing with the old for units at retirement village

I read with bewilderment that there are those in 20s and 30s buying units at the retirement village, the first in Singapore. All the 281 units were sold out within hours. I am not sure if those 20s and 30s are shopping for a unit for their elderly. If they are shopping on behalf of their elderly. I would say they are quite sweet in providing lodging for their old. I am not sure if there are … [Read more...]

Random thoughts- strange how my preferences change so much with age?

I just realized my taste and preferences change a lot. I listen to FM 88.3 now, and pay a lot of attention to the lyrics and the instruments behind the music. I used to just like the rhythm and the “feeling” behind it. I loved to go KTV and sing, now I just like listening to oldies. Would u believe if I tell u I actually went youtube to listen to Michael’s smooth criminal again … [Read more...]

Random thoughts- strange how my preferences change so much with age?

I just realized my taste and preferences change a lot. I listen to FM 88.3 now, and pay a lot of attention to the lyrics and the instruments behind the music. I used to just like the rhythm and the “feeling” behind it. I loved to go KTV and sing, now I just like listening to oldies. Would u believe if I tell u I actually went youtube to listen to Michael’s smooth criminal again … [Read more...]

My thoughts after reading Nam Lee Metals AR

After reading up on the AR, I find a few interesting points: Information about major customers (p88): “In the current financial year, revenue from two major customers amounted to $77 million (2012: $89 million) arising from sales by the aluminium segment and $25 million (2012: $11 million) arising from sales by the aluminium and mild steel segment respectively” Its quite obvious 77 … [Read more...]

Random thoughts- shouldn’t Singpost and SPH consider working together?

Just some random thoughts here. Singpost and SPH both have Hugh distribution network. Singpost wanted to go big on online retail, wanted to sign online franchise, SPH has hardwarezone and advertising is but a small variable cost. SPH help in advertising, add e-commerce depth to Singpost, singpost deliver both posts and newspaper. Parcel can be collected at both singpost outlets as well as … [Read more...]

Limitations of some numbers and ratios

Just a beginner blog of some of the limitations of some numbers and ratios. PE. There is limitations if the company you are looking at is highly cyclical. It my be at the peak of the cycle and hence PE is at the lowest, but earnings might fall, and PE increase. Earnings of core operations might not be that high, earnings might be very high due to revaluation of assets (properties or … [Read more...]

APTT – 2nd practice of new model

For APTT, I have already establish its economic moat and earning power in an previous blog http://sillyinvestor.wordpress.com/2013/12/17/aptt-is-distribution-sustainable/ APTT is a media company with regulation constraints/protection, with the rezoning of frachase areas, APTT will start to face competition from 2015 onward, but as mentioned in the previous blog, competition if any, will not … [Read more...]

Lee metals – 1st practice of DCF valuation after reading Pat Dorsey

Well, no rocket science, but here goes. First, if the operating numbers make any sense to go further.   Most importantly, FCF, the lifeblood of DCF calculation is reasonable stable   Only 2 years of negative FCF, which is more than offset by the other years, with the average FCF of the last 8 years to be 15 mio and the peak at 53 mio. To estimate the new year … [Read more...]

Book review- “The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing” by Pat Dorsey

I spend the past week finding whatever free time I had to read the book, which is recommended by musicwhiz. It is amazing how easy it is to navigate the book. The author should really be given credits for able to explain complex concepts in a clear and simple language. First of all, I always have difficulty understanding the concept of DCF, and also is skeptical of the discount rate and … [Read more...]

Random thoughts- What kind of person am I?

In investing, we always ask what kind of investors are we? It is important to know our temperaments so as to find the style of investment that is in sync with our temperament, and be successful in investing. If we think a step backwards, we should ask ourselves also, what kind of human are we, so that we can be successful and most importantly happy in the circumstances we are in, although we … [Read more...]

A reflection of investment journey 2013

I was reading various forums and bloggers and realized quite a number of people can achieve returns of 30% in 2013 for their portfolio. I was wondering why my results are so dismayed compare to them. And No, there people get their results not by trading or speculating in pennies. They bought stocks like M1, challenger, valuatronics, Yangzijiang, CES, etc. Demoralization aside, I reflect hard on … [Read more...]

Year-end portfolio review – A dismay record

True to my nick, I have a dismal record. All my counters were bought in 2013 except Nam Lee. I used to own and sell other counters too, and trade s-chips quite heavily at one point of time. After reading “the intelligent investor”, my whole investment paradigm shifted. I am also clearer with what I want, I wanted dividend income for cash flow, more than capital gain. I decided to be more … [Read more...]

Random thoughts- what does the movie “The hobbit” remind me of in investment?

Not to trust reviews ( analyst reports) for big name movie (company) I remember reading somewhere from peterlynch books that it is easier forgiven to be wrong about the big names, than to be wrong about a small company. Who can one blame if a big company cover by so many analysts underperformed, but be damned if u choose a under radar company and it didn’t turn out well. I catch “the storm” … [Read more...]

APTT :Email Qn and Ans with CFO

Qn: Thank you for for taking time to answer my questions. I do have another concern. From your prospectus, Expected tax resolution is 46 million and company has set aside 50.2 million in loans for the settlement. But the maximum amount claimed by the tax bureau is actually $122.4 million, a whopping 74 million difference. Granted, company has mentioned the discussion is progressing … [Read more...]

APTT — Is distribution sustainable?

APTT is a much disliked counter going by what forummers/ bloggers said about it during its IPO, but it has fallen 23% from its IPO price with a yield of above 10%. It is still a bargain now? As with HPHT, the sustainability or the doubts of its sustainability of payout is the main reason for its under performance. Lets us look at APTT and the various threats and see if they are … [Read more...]

Your emergency funds – How much is enough? (Warning: Dark content)

There is a general guideline of 6 months – 12 months. I think that is arbitrary. First, 6 months of $2000 is rather different from 6 months of $10K We need to understand the nature of our job, how easy is it to lose our job, or is it a iron rice bowl. I consider my job an iron rice bowl job. (I traded high pay for security if you like) Next, how cover are you and your family when … [Read more...]

HPHT- Betting on Yantian to deliver

Readers would know that I have accumulate HPHT, when the price is beaten down recently. Let us look at the numbers again. Capex Capex for 2012 and 2013 thus far. ~598 mio HKD and 584 mio HKD From prospectus, “West Port Phase II has incurred approximately HK$0.2 billion in construction costs, with approximately HK$3 billion more required to complete construction., to be completed by … [Read more...]

Market in correction mode- silly investor making silly purchases

The market has bee in correction mode despite the general more upbeat macro numbers both in US and Singapore. Again tapering is quoted as a result. To me, even if tapering do start in dec, it is not a bad thing if u buy sound companies. In fact, I feel that market is just going thro a correction and tapering is just a excuse. The recent correction have trigger several accumulation of … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: Financial Freedom is a means to an end, not the end itself

(Random thoughts series have nothing to do with analysis of companies, skip it if you like) Hmm… What I am going to say will most properly pissed a lot of savvy investors off. What I am going to say here is run counter to many wealth accumulation rules. 1) Delayed gratification. Yes, I agree, but we need to make sure our love ones enjoy life if we could afford it. Loans for holidays … [Read more...]

The difference management makes to malls

It is the school holiday season again. I have been very fortunate enough to be spending more time with my family. But when my family enjoy their dose of food, shopping and sight-seeing, I actually see the shops and foods through an investor lens. (quite fun actually, since I previously detest shopping) I am always amazed at how crowded the suburban capital land malls are, so I was really … [Read more...]