I received an email from a Blog visitor asking me how low the Dow could fall too.....if the 7600 didn't hold ?
The Dow touched that level when Citigroup was on the verge of going bust and before it was rescued by the US Government in the latter half of November 2008. My guess is that if the Dow continues to follow its monthly pattern - it will lose heavily in the first part of the month from negative economic and corporate news and then recover a bit in the last week on month end window dressing.
If the Dow falls below 7600, which is the first support, then the next level is 6200 and if that fails then very strong support can be found at the 4000 level. See the two charts on the Dow below. The second chart is from 1960 onwards. Read more...