The 4 percent rule for Financial Independence and Early Retirement (FIRE) is based on the performance of the US stock market (S&P500) since 1928, over a series of 30-year horizons. But has it worked in recent years since the research was published? And does it work for a non-US investor, who has to deal with withholding taxes and exchange rate risk?

It turns out that your mileage may vary, by quite a lot. The 4 percent rule did not work so well for investors in the 2000s, but did for investors in the 1990s and 2010s. And exchange rate risk reduces the effectiveness by a lot, much more than withholding taxes for the non-US investor! So, no matter how well a particular foreign market has performed in the past, always diversify your risk. Especially in retirement, when you have no chance to earn your way back into a sustainable position.