An important consideration for a retail investor is the question of how to keep your portfolio safe against a future downturn. One approach that I find dubious is to keep an eye on political and economic events and sell the portfolio before the foreseen event were to happen. The pandemic taught us that such an approach might not work because no economic indicator could have predicted the rise of COVID-19. An alternative is to perform risk-budgeting. In such an approach, you limit the risk of your portfolio to something which you can stomach. If you track your portfolio on Stocks Café, a straightforward risk metric is the concept of a significant shortfall. The effective shortfall, expressed as a percentage measure, measures the expected loss of your portfolio on the worst month that occurs out of a hundred months, which must be something that you must be able to tolerate daily....