“Expeditiously”
Minutes from the March FOMC meeting showed that “many” on the committee are prepared to shrink the balance sheet and raise interest rates “expeditiously” in order to rein in inflation. They were held back from doing so due uncertainty from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Raising interest rates and shrinking the $9 trillion balance sheet would remove support for the economy and increase the cost of borrowing, leading to slower growth, thereby dampening the economy and eventually prices. This chain reaction tends to take some time. If prices remain high and consumers expect persistently higher prices, controlling inflation in such a scenario could be even more difficult.
Fed officials are coalescing around a plan to slow their reinvestment of securities, most likely capping the monthly shrinking at $60 billion for Treasury securities and $35 billion for mortgage-backed debt, twice the rate back in 2017-2019.
Initially, market participants were worried that the Fed was not concerned enough about inflation, as remarks that...