Inflation peaks again Inflation in the US surged (again!) to 9.1% in June, marking a new high in 40 years. No one was expecting a low figure, but this surprised on the upside. A rapid re-pricing of Fed expectations followed and researchers from Citi gained attention for putting a 1.00% hike on the table, but qualified that the Fed would have to be nimble and to be prepared to cut rates if needed too.  The next FOMC meeting happens in two weeks (July 26-27). We will be tracking what Federal Reserve officials say in interviews next week before they enter a quiet period a week prior to FOMC meetings. So far, based on public comments from Fed staff, a 75bps increase at the July meeting would be the base case.  Looking at the breakdown of components that go into CPI, prices of food and goods (yellow and red bars)...