The US is holding its midterm election now. But we are not going to talk about politics. We are going to see the impact of midterms on the US stock market.
U.S. Bank did a study of 15 midterm elections in the past 60 years.
The statistics showed that the S&P 500 index underperformed for a year before the election.
The average 1-year return prior to November of a midterm year was -1%. However, the return averaged 11.2% if it was a non-midterm year.
What is more interesting is the returns after the midterms.
3 months after the midterms, the S&P 500 averaged 7.3% return, more than double the returns of 2.9% in a non-midterm year.
There were some periods where returns were negative - 4 out of 15 midterm periods saw S&P 500 declined 3 months after the midterms. That means there is still a 73% chance that S&P 500 would be positive.
The outperformance during a midterm year continued six to twelve months after the election.
6 months after: Midterm year +15.1% vs non-midterm year +4.2%...