It was the best of times and the worst of times to reach Financial Independence and Early Retirement (FIRE) over the past few years. Best of times, because the gains in equity investments up to 2021 meant that many people could reach their FIRE goal earlier than expected. Worst of times, because the subsequent fall in both equity and bond investments in 2022 has meant that early retirees are facing a sharp fall in portfolio values just upon retirement. Which is exactly what sequence of returns risk is.

Even for those whose retirements are not at risk, the recent past is instructive with regards to investing for FIRE. At the very least, the assumptions from the past decade (the period when FIRE has become mainstream) need to be rethought and reconsidered. If you can do it all over again, what will you do, or not do? If you can pass