You know how Stanley Druckenmiller always talks about how George Soros (or even himself) can change his mind completely once new data comes to light? How he can be leveraged long a trade one day, and when new data comes to light he goes short the next day? I wrote my most recent macro update on Thursday, 11 May, where I said that none of the hard economic data is showing signs of an imminent recession. On Thursday night / Friday morning, some of the latest data is now showing that:

1. Unemployment starting to tick up
2. Consumer spending on leisure may have peaked

These are early signs of a US recession. Especially so if we see further confirmation in the data in the weeks / month or two ahead. This has pretty big implications, and I want to take some time out to discuss this. For ease of reading, I am structuring this as a series of Q&As...