..my thoughts after a week of reflection Global stock markets have continued to hang on to their March 9 2009 gains leading to a strong six week rally which has surprised me by its strength. Even weaker than expected negative economic growth has been set aside as a lagging indicator. Underpinning the rally has been better than expected results from US banks such as JP Morgan, CitiGroup and Goldman. The question on everyone's mind is is the worse over for the stock market, ie stock markets have bottomed and we are at the start of a Bull market or is it a "suckers" or strong bear rally which now has teeth and claws. I noticed toward the latter half of last week that retail volumes have picked up significantly which blue chip volumes have declined....this is probably a sign of market consolidation pending the Q1-2009 results for blue chips and also to me a sign that this rally is due for a correction. I was a bit concerned about the last minute window dressing of the STI on Tues and Wed last week and also the fact that the STI Index opened firm but closed with modest gains on Thurs and Fri. This could signal a correction is due or to the bulls a healthy intra-day consolidation. Read more...