Invest
Tug of war – Bull vs. Bear Ends. Financial market plunges. What’s next
By Patrick See  •  May 22, 2012
Published Singapore Monday 1pm. The above article commenced mid February with Part 2 in March and Part 3 in April. My benchmark for the tug of war list of events is the DJI ranging from 12800 to 13000. I had picked the above title, then, is because my speculation was that market would trend sideways until the next key events.
Last week, DJI closed below 12,400 together with S&P500 and Nasdaq closing down for the week back to back. Hence, the tug of war or range trading had ended. Leading to the correction were the following list of events:
·         GDP were weak then
·         Currencies were lower (not USD) signalling higher inflation....
However, having provided all the bad news.... here comes my technical reading.
Technically, RSI and various indicators signal ‘oversold’ levels. The big boys, fund houses may have program buying at key technical support levels. Hence, there’s a strong possibility the market would take a short breather from these oversold positions.
Carry trades
The global sentiment is risk-off. Volatility is high. This leads to unwinding of carry trades in currencies. Hence, safe haven currencies are sought after. The Yen and US dollar rises. Other currencies including commodity currencies weaken. This leads to a fall in commodities – mining, agriculture, etc.
On a separate matter...
Properties. This is probably your biggest and longest investment. Most, if not all would take the longest tenure. Here’s the problem most of you do not see. You’ll be paying the biggest loan and let the bank earn your money. Your principal gets lowered very very slowly...
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By Patrick See
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