One of the most common topics discussed these days would be where do we see oil heading? I have read countless of articles regarding this topic. Some of the latest estimates would be analysts placing a short-term floor of approximately $35 a barrel, while option traders are placing bets that prices could fall further into the $20 region in the next few months. As a student of value investing, I find the study of economic history to not only be interesting but relevant to today’s world as well. While I will not delve into the relevance of economic history with value investing, I wanted to share a short history of the oil prices over the past 3 decades or so and my take on oil.
History of Crude Oil
Looking at the top 10 oil producing countries, one would realise that a majority of them are actually very unstable countries ......