“When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they’re the first thing I open and read. I always learn something, and that goes double for his book,” Warren Buffett has said.
Here ( Click ) is the latest memo from Howard Marks on “ Expert Opinion ” !
Quoted below summary on his view about expert opinion and making economic forecast .
// Quote //
My Opinion of Opinions
Since I’ve discussed these things at great length over the years, I‘ll try here to sum up succinctly:
- There are no facts about the future, just opinions. Anyone who asserts with conviction what he thinks will happen in the macro future is overstating his foresight, whether out of ignorance, hubris or dishonesty.
- Developments in economies, interest rates, currencies and markets aren’t the result of scientific processes. The involvement in them of people – with their emotions, foibles and biases – renders them highly unpredictable.As physicist Richard Feynman put it, “Imagine how much harder physics would be if electrons had feelings!”…