This is a continuation of the previous post. In the last post, we summarized the Hyflux debacle and discussed the lessons learnt. 1. Always limit or risk capital to an amount we can lose 2. Map out all the scenarios and probabilities and keep monitoring them. Today we delve in #2 and share the third lesson further below. In our due diligence on Hyflux eight years ago. I would say that I did not do this well. Hyflux scenarios and probabilities should have looked like the following: 60% - business as usual, Hyflux continued to operate as successful as it had since IPO. In this scenario, things pan out as we wanted, perp holders get back their money when Hyflux redeemed them in 2018 or 2020. This would be the base case or good scenario. 30% - Hyflux business deteriorates or the external environment changed, causing some cashflow problems....