To Cory, every lowering yield has been a key phenomenon for decades as i blogged earlier. Looks at this chart 1. Federal Fund Rate has been going on since 1980s. That’s almost 40 years of trend. Recessions precipitates whenever there is locality inflation (not shown in chart).
Let’s look at another interesting chart 2. What happen with increasing effective federal fund rate. We probably have yields inversion.
Chart 2: Effective FFR and Treasury Yields
From read above, Interest rate is closely tied to managing inflation. With increasing rate, there is potential of recession. The overall trend for the past 40 years have been decreasing rate as long we keep inflation in checks. Ever lowering rates have been driving SP 500 direction up generally.
This could explain why there is no rational